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Eight kids, eight chairs, one rule: explaining FIFA's best-thirds draw to my 8-year-old Rahul Devaskar Rahul Devaskar Rahul Devaskar Follow Jun 27 Eight kids, eight chairs, one rule: explaining FIFA's best-thirds draw to my 8-year-old # webdev # soccer # math # worldcup Add Comment 14 min read

Instagram users could soon see more ways to tune their content.

Do the benefits of features like dimming and scheduling make up for the constant energy draw needed for connectivity?

The opening kickoff of Super Bowl LVII was still three weeks away when sharp bettors began their work. While casual fans were scrolling through prop bets and debating quarterback matchups on social media, a handful of disciplined bettors with sophisticated models were already identifying the first exploitable edges. Within hours, sportsbooks registered the shift: Kansas City opened at -2.5, but sharp action pushed the line to -3. By game day, it had settled at -2.5 again after public money flooded in on the Chiefs. This seemingly minor dance of numbers contains profound lessons about market efficiency, behavioral psychology, and where consistent value in sports betting actually exists. The difference between sharp money and public money isn't merely a matter of skill—it's a window into how financial markets process information in real time. For researchers, data scientists, and anyone interested in understanding how markets function under uncertainty, betting lines offer a peculiar advantage: instantaneous, objective outcomes. You can know within hours whether your hypothesis was correct. This article explores what line movement data reveals about market inefficiencies, the methodology behind detecting them, and what this teaches us about information asymmetry in competitive markets. The Hidden Market Beneath the Surface Most bettors see a line and make a decision: is this price fair or favorable? But they miss the crucial information happening before they ever see that number. Sportsbooks don't set lines based on game probability—they set them based on where they predict the money will flow. This distinction transforms betting markets into fascinating research subjects. Consider the structure: A sportsbook's primary goal isn't prediction; it's profit through balanced exposure. They're market makers, not forecasters. When sharp bettors arrive first with informational advantages, they move the line. When public money arrives later with no informational advantage but

When the referee checks their watch in the 85th minute, something predictable happens in soccer—but almost nobody is modeling it correctly. I spent three months analyzing 1,085 professional soccer matches using StatsBomb's open data, focusing specifically on goal-scoring patterns in the final 15 minutes of regulation play and stoppage time. What I found challenges the conventional wisdom that late goals are chaotic, random events determined purely by desperation and fortune. Instead, the data revealed a structured pattern that, when properly identified, has produced an 79.3% accuracy rate in backtesting across multiple leagues and seasons. The bookmakers aren't missing this pattern because the pattern doesn't exist—they're missing it because it requires looking at the problem completely differently than traditional sports analytics approaches it. The Setup: Why Late Goals Matter Before diving into methodology, let's establish why this question even matters. Late goals are the most emotionally charged moments in soccer. They're also economically significant. A goal in the 88th minute creates a cascade of outcomes: It flips match results It triggers goal-line drama and potential VAR decisions It creates dramatic shifts in market odds It validates or destroys betting positions The conventional narrative treats late goals as the result of two factors: increased urgency from trailing teams and increased vulnerability from leading teams. This is directionally correct but strategically useless. It's like saying "stock prices move when sentiment changes"—technically true, but not actionable. The real question isn't whether late goals happen more frequently. The real question is: which teams score them, under which specific conditions, with what measurable precursors? Methodology: Building the Dataset I used StatsBomb's open data repository, which contains event-level information from 1,085 professional matches across multiple seasons and competitions. StatsBomb's data inclu

The Night Everything Changed It was 87 minutes into a Premier League match. The score was 1-1. The home team had controlled possession for most of the second half, but their shots were consistently blocked or saved. Then something happened that's been happening for decades, yet nobody seems to adequately explain it: a late goal completely shifted the match outcome. This scene repeats thousands of times across professional soccer every season. But here's what most analysts miss—late goals aren't chaotic, unpredictable events. They follow patterns. Measurable, quantifiable patterns that exist independently of team quality or circumstance. Over the past 18 months, I analyzed 1,085 professional soccer matches using StatsBomb's publicly available open data. What emerged from this analysis wasn't revolutionary in isolation, but when combined with standard soccer metrics, it revealed something striking: late-game scoring (goals in the final 15 minutes of regulation) follows predictable behavioral and tactical patterns that, when properly identified, show a 79.3% correlation with specific pre-match and in-match conditions. This isn't about predicting individual goals with certainty. It's about understanding that late goals exist within a framework—one governed by fatigue, tactical desperation, compressed time, and predictable defensive adjustments. And once you see this framework, you can't unsee it. The Data Foundation Before diving into patterns, let me establish what we're working with. StatsBomb's open data includes detailed shot maps, pass completion sequences, player positioning, and event-by-event timelines from top-tier professional matches. When they made portions of this data publicly available, it created an unusual opportunity: examining thousands of matches with granular timing and contextual information. My analysis focused specifically on: 1,085 professional matches across five seasons (2017-2022) Shot events in the final 15 minutes of regulation (minutes 75-

The sportsbook odds for UFC 287 showed Sean Strickland at +340 against Dricus du Plessis. Most bettors saw a reasonable risk-reward opportunity. What they didn't see—what the market systematically misses—is that fighters in Strickland's exact statistical profile win substantially more often than their odds suggest. When Strickland knocked out du Plessis in the second round, it wasn't luck. It was a textbook case of market inefficiency that data reveals happens repeatedly in MMA. I spent six months building a comprehensive dataset of 500 UFC fights, cross-referencing striking accuracy, takedown defense, fight duration patterns, and historical betting odds against actual outcomes. What emerged was clear: the UFC betting market is inefficient in predictable ways. Certain underdog profiles generate consistent positive return on investment (ROI) that would be impossible if prices reflected true win probabilities. This isn't hindsight bias or cherry-picked examples. This is systematic analysis of where prediction markets get MMA wrong—and how you can identify it before the bell rings. The UFC Analytics Ecosystem: Why Data Matters More Than Ever Five years ago, serious MMA analytics barely existed outside Reddit threads and YouTube channels. Today, the landscape has transformed completely. UFCStats.com provides granular fight data that didn't exist in the sport's early years. Betting markets across DraftKings, FanDuel, and international books generate millions in handle. Meanwhile, fighter training data, coaching staff analytics, and institutional scouting reports are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Yet there's a persistent gap between information availability and information utilization . The casual bettor sees a -250 favorite and assumes the math is settled. Sportsbooks, operating on relatively thin margins and managing liability across thousands of bets, often make conservative assumptions. They price based on public perception, recent results, and popularity rathe

Operating system, a thing that everybody uses but no one talks about. While reading Operating Systems: Three Easy Pieces (OSTEP), my background in C and C++ fueled a growing fascination with memory allocation, virtualization, scheduling, and the intricate mechanics of operating systems. This would be a series of article, the number i am not sure, it will be the amount of content that someone might comfortably read in a 10 min Article. Keeping each piece to a solid 10-minute read is the perfect sweet spot for a developer to read over a cup of coffee. It gives you enough runway to explain a core concept, show the math, and link a practical C/C++ experiment without making their eyes glaze over. Why this Article ? We are often warned against “reinventing the wheel.” However, I firmly believe that building and optimizing modern software is impossible without a fundamental grasp of virtualization, memory allocation, and concurrency. Consider Docker: it functions almost entirely on OS-level virtualization features like Namespaces, cgroups, and isolated filesystems. Similarly, the highly optimized Memory Manager in PostgreSQL only works because it leverages the robust memory management systems already written into the OS kernel. This article aims to bring the core concepts of OSTEP to life through practical experimentation. By accompanying the theory with an open-source repository, my goal is to provide a clear, interactive learning experience that demystifies operating systems. I am not an operating system guru or a Principal Engineer with years of experience, but I hope to become one someday (assuming AI doesn’t replace me first… HeHe ). What I can do is dive in, explore, and try to understand these concepts by actually building things. Because of that, my goal here is to present the findings and experiments I explore rather than giving strong opinions — I’ll leave the comment section for those! Any support, feedback, or contributions from the community will be incredibly

Factors like the short interval between the two powerful quakes and different types of soil led to some structures collapsing while others stayed standing.

After weeks of negotiations, the White House permitted Anthropic to restore access to its most advanced AI model for a select group of US companies and government agencies.

The Post-Mortem Nobody Learns From I've sat through hundreds of post-mortems. Most follow the same pattern: something breaks, someone writes a Google Doc, we have a meeting, we list action items, nobody follows up, the same thing happens again in 3 months. Here's how to break the cycle. The Blameless Culture Trap "Blameless" doesn't mean "actionless." The biggest failure mode I see is teams that use blameless culture as an excuse to avoid accountability. Blameless means: we don't punish the person who pushed the bad deploy. Blameless does NOT mean: nobody is responsible for fixing the systemic issue. My Post-Mortem Template # Incident: [SERVICE] [SYMPTOM] on [DATE] ## Impact - Duration: X minutes - Users affected: N - Revenue impact: $X - SLO budget consumed: X% ## Timeline (UTC) - HH:MM - First alert fired - HH:MM - On-call acknowledged - HH:MM - Root cause identified - HH:MM - Fix deployed - HH:MM - Service recovered - HH:MM - All-clear declared ## Root Cause [2-3 sentences. Technical but readable.] ## Contributing Factors 1. [Factor that made the incident possible] 2. [Factor that made detection slow] 3. [Factor that made resolution slow] ## What Went Well - [Something that worked] - [Something that helped] ## What Went Wrong - [Process failure] - [Technical gap] ## Action Items | Action | Owner | Priority | Due Date | Status | |--------|-------|----------|----------|--------| | ... | ... | P1/P2/P3 | ... | Open | ## Lessons Learned [1-2 paragraphs of genuine insight] The Action Item Problem Action items from post-mortems have a 30% completion rate industry-wide. That's terrible. Here's why: Too many items (I've seen post-mortems with 15 action items) No clear ownership No deadline No follow-up mechanism Competing with feature work The Fix: Three Rules Rule 1: Maximum 3 action items per post-mortem. If you can't narrow it to 3, you haven't identified the real problems. Rule 2: Every action item gets a JIRA ticket linked to the next sprint. Not "someday." Not "bac

NYT shifts OpenAI/Microsoft copyright claims after SCOTUS ruling against Sony.

The asteroid will be visible for several nights from different parts of the world. We’ll tell you when and where to look, and what equipment you’ll need to spot it.

It's "an exciting advance in efforts to restock the antibiotic arsenal."

The White House asked OpenAI to delay the rollout of its GPT-5.6 AI models, two weeks after Anthropic had to take its most advanced AI models offline.

GitHub joined the United Nations Development Programme in Ghana to explore how open source governance can support one of West Africa's most ambitious digital reform efforts. The post GitHub and UNDP team up to advance development priorities in Ghana with open source appeared first on The GitHub Blog .

Vercel has released Eve, an open-source framework for building, deploying, and operating AI agents in production. The framework uses a filesystem-based project structure to organize agent instructions, tools, skills, subagents, communication channels, and scheduled tasks, enabling developers to define agent behavior while reducing the amount of supporting infrastructure they need to implement. By Daniel Dominguez

TikTok may be working to become the app that people use for most of their digital activities.

Rock weathering may release or draw down carbon dioxide—it depends on the rock.

A scuffle between stan account Club Chalamet and another Heated Rivalry die-hard shines a light on how parasocial fans are a publicist’s greatest asset—and liability.