标签：#prediction

One of Kalshi’s most prominent traders tells WIRED he’s swearing off Spotify-related markets until the issue is resolved.

"Winning" bets were made on cloned website and would have lost money, WSJ finds.

Getting the future right is now big business. But at a festival in Berkeley, forecasters worry that sports markets could take the whole industry down.

description: While most people chase political bets, these traders are dominating daily temperature...

description: Weather markets on Polymarket have become one of the hottest and most consistent...

It’s the first estimate of how many Americans are sneaking onto Polymarket’s banned crypto-based platform.

Social media posts questioning the integrity of LA’s mayoral election were labeled “paid partnerships.” Then Kalshi and Polymarket told creators to delete them.

From the motivation-pattern-log — a public, dated, falsifiable prediction log for AI-era cybersecurity attack patterns grounded in motivation analysis. Predictions are scored quarterly against stated falsifiers. PREDICTION-20260601-0008 Created: 2026-06-01 Pattern: boredom-with-asymmetric-leverage Substrate: Open-source package registries (npm, PyPI, Crates.io, Packagist) and GitHub Actions CI/CD workflow injection Leading indicator observed: Four distinct, concurrent, cross-registry supply chain campaigns (TrapDoor: 34 packages across npm/PyPI/Crates.io; Megalodon: 5,718 automated commits to 5,561 GitHub repos in six hours; Packagist compromise of 8 packages; Laravel-Lang PHP credential stealer) appeared within a 72-hour window in 2026-W22, all exhibiting automation signatures — throwaway publisher accounts, wave publishing, base64-encoded shell payloads, off-the-shelf delivery via GitHub Releases — consistent with toolkit operation rather than bespoke tradecraft. npm's reactive rollout of 2FA-gated publishing signals registry operators recognizing volume pressure. Predicted window: 2026-Q3 through 2027-Q1 Predicted shape: Automated, low-sophistication credential-stealing and backdoor-planting campaigns against npm, PyPI, Crates.io, and Packagist will continue to increase in incident volume while average per-campaign novelty declines. The dominant operational signature will be scripted account creation, automated package publication across multiple registries simultaneously, and CI/CD workflow injection via forged or compromised GitHub bot identities — all executable with commodity toolkits requiring no original exploit development. At least two registry operators beyond npm will announce reactive publishing controls (mandatory 2FA, namespace-squatting detection, automated malware scanning with publication holds) within the window in direct response to volume pressure. Security vendors will report a measurable increase in "unsophisticated supply chain" incidents re

FBI: Googler who knew outcome of bets in advance made $1.2M profit on Polymarket.

According to federal prosecutors, Michele Spagnuolo made more than $1 million on the prediction market platform using confidential information about Google Search traffic.