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Luck == Opportunity Meets Preparation

There's a line usually pinned on the Roman philosopher Seneca: luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. People put it all over social media and like most things on social media, it gets repeated so often that it stops meaning anything. So let me try to make it mean something again, with a math equation and a football match that happened recently at the latest FIFA World Cup 2026. The equation nobody writes down We talk about luck like it's a single mysterious force, either you have it or you don't. But it's not one thing. It's two things multiplied together: Luck = Preparation × Opportunities Look at what that multiplication does. If your preparation is zero, it doesn't matter how many opportunities show up, zero times anything is still zero. And if you're the most prepared person alive but you never put yourself in front of a single opportunity, same result. Zero. The lucky people aren't the ones who got more luck handed to them. They're the ones who kept both numbers high. They got good and they kept showing up to the table where things happen. Hold that thought. Let's go to Texas. Japan, the Netherlands, and the 88th minute On June 14th, 2026, Japan played the Netherlands in their World Cup group opener in Arlington, Texas. On paper it was a mismatch in the most literal, physical sense. The Netherlands are tall . Van Dijk, Van de Ven, the whole spine of that team is built like a row of wardrobes. Japan are one of the shorter sides in world football, quick, technical, but not the people you'd bet on to win a header. If you were designing a contest specifically to humiliate the Japanese, you'd make it about jumping. And for most of the night, the script ran exactly as the bodies predicted. The Dutch dominated the run of play, around 60% possession, more passes, more touches in the box, the better expected goals. Van Dijk, a defender, rose for a cross and headed the Netherlands ahead. Later Summerville restored their lead. The Oranje even won the aer

2026-06-16 原文 →
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A Love Letter to Survivorship Bias in Tech

How many times have you seen a picture of a plane with red dots posted on the internet without context? There's a famous story about a statistician named Abraham Wald and a bunch of WWII bombers. The military looked at the planes coming back from combat, mapped where they were riddled with bullet holes, and decided to add armor there. Wald, being the kind of person who ruins meetings by being right, pointed out the obvious thing nobody wanted to hear: The planes they were looking at came back . The ones hit in the spots with no bullet holes, the engine, the cockpit, were at the bottom of the English Channel, not available for the survey. Reinforce the parts that aren't shot up. That's where the dead planes got hit. I think about this story a lot, mostly while reading those blog posts titled "X Habits That Made Me a 10x Engineer." The entire industry is a returning-plane survey Here is the uncomfortable thing about software engineering wisdom: almost all of it is collected from the planes that came back. Successful companies write blog posts. Successful founders do podcast tours. Successful engineers give conference talks with titles like "Scaling to 100 Million Users with Three People and a Dream." The companies that did the exact same things and died do not have a booth at the conference. They are not on the panel. They are in the channel, with the engines. And yet we keep doing the survey. We stare at the bullet holes on the survivors and go, "Ah, this is where we add armor." "Netflix uses microservices, so we should too" You have eleven users. Three of them are your co-founders, and one is your mom. Netflix runs a globe-spanning streaming empire on hundreds of microservices because they have hundreds of teams, billions in revenue, and problems you will be lucky to have in a decade. You have a Postgres database that is doing just fine, thank you, and a monolith that boots in four seconds. So naturally, you spend the next eight months splitting your perfectly funct

2026-06-16 原文 →