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How much of the SPX options book is new each day? Open-interest change across 1,081 sessions

Short version of a post on gex.live/research ; the full write-up, definitions and reproduce block live there. Most published dealer-gamma numbers are built from open interest : yesterday's outstanding contracts, multiplied by a convention about who holds which side. Whether the convention is right is a separate question. The prior question is simpler: how much of what trades today was already in that book this morning — and how much of tomorrow's book is being created today? Open interest and volume are enough to answer it, with no assumption about who bought. Sample: SPX and SPXW, 2022-04-14 to 2026-08-14, 1,081 trading days, every expiry within about a month (0DTE plus the 21 nearest), 8.6 million contract-days, 4.3 million with volume. Definitions Per contract (expiry, strike, right) and session D: OI(D) is open interest at the start of D, OI(D+1) at the start of the next session, ΔOI = OI(D+1) − OI(D) , vol the day's volume in that contract. |ΔOI| / vol is a lower bound on how one-sided the day's trading in that contract was — 1.0 means every lot opened (or every lot closed), 0 means opens and closes cancelled. Contracts expiring on D have no next-day OI and drop out of the ΔOI statistics; 4.1% of rows (3.8% of volume) show |ΔOI| > vol, which is impossible (OI snapshot timing) and are excluded. The book grows by 40% of what trades, every day days to expiry on D net ΔOI / volume |ΔOI| / volume (lower bound on one-sidedness) share of volume in contracts whose OI rose contract-days 1–5 37.8% 41.8% 90.3% 813,013 6–21 42.7% 53.3% 81.1% 2,206,446 22+ 42.8% 57.6% 76.5% 831,896 Across the whole book, net ΔOI is 39.9% of the day's volume on the median session (IQR 36.2–44.0%), positive in every year and every expiry bucket: the SPX book is always being built faster than it is unwound, until expiry does the unwinding. Far expiries are open-and-hold (a day's trading in a 22+ DTE contract is at least 58% one-sided); the nearest expiries churn (42% at 1–5 DTE). Per contract-

2026-08-22 原文 →
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Why does it seem like food recalls are out of control this year?

Just weeks after Taylor Farms issued a recall of its iceberg lettuce amid a massive cyclospora outbreak, the Food and Drug Administration recalled more than one million eggs that may be contaminated with salmonella. The eggs, which come from Midwest Poultry Services, were distributed to Kroger and smaller grocery stores across the South and Southwest […]

2026-08-21 原文 →
AI 资讯

Tesla sunsets its Solar Roof tiles

Tesla has discontinued Solar Roof, its solar panels designed to look like regular roofing tiles, Electrek reports. Sources "close to the program" told the publication that Tesla has informed its third-party installer network that Solar Roof is no longer available to order, and that only conventional solar panels will be supplied going forward. While Tesla […]

2026-08-21 原文 →
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LeetCode 3116 (Hard) — binary search + inclusion-exclusion makes it easy

Full walkthrough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFuFA3ByCs0 LeetCode 3116 — Kth Smallest Amount With Single Denomination Combination. Here’s the trick everyone misses: Brute force (generate all multiples, pick k-th) fails because k can reach 2×10⁹. The real approach: Binary search the answer X Count valid amounts ≤ X using inclusion-exclusion Odd subsets add, even subtract (bitmask over coins) LCM via GCD, break when LCM > X O(n · 2ⁿ · log(k·M)) — passes cleanly. The 26% acceptance rate makes this look harder than it is. Once you see the count(X) monotonic trick, it clicks.

2026-08-21 原文 →
AI 资讯

Beyond the Vector: Why Graph Neural Networks are the Strategic Choice for Enterprise Generative AI on GCP

In the current epoch of Artificial Intelligence, the industry remains singularly preoccupied with the "Model" — obsessing over the raw parameter scales of the latest LLMs or the specific benchmark performance of a new transformer variant. However, at Informatiqs, we shift the lens. We recognize that sustainable enterprise value is rarely derived from the model in isolation; instead, it emerges from the high-stakes architectural decisions and systemic orchestration that define its environment. As we launch our inaugural edition, we dissect a critical technological nexus: the convergence of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), Generative AI, and the industrial-grade infrastructure of Google Cloud Platform (GCP). We argue that for complex enterprise datasets, the transition from flat vector embeddings in latent space toward non-Euclidean, graph-based relational intelligence is the primary differentiator for the next generation of resilient AI applications. 1. The Scientific Foundation: Exploiting Relational Inductive Bias Traditional Deep Learning architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for images or Transformers for text, primarily operate on data structured as sequences (Euclidean space). While exceptionally powerful, these structures often fail to capture the topological nuances of real-world systems like supply chains, molecular structures, or fraudulent transaction webs where data is inherently non-Euclidean. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide a framework for learning from data represented as nodes and edges. Unlike standard neural networks that process inputs in isolation, GNNs utilize a Message Passing paradigm. In this process, a node's internal representation is iteratively updated by aggregating information from its immediate neighbors. Instead of looking at a data point as a single row in a database, the GNN looks at who that data point "talks to" and how those connections define its identity. By utilizing Graph Attention mechanisms, we can fu

2026-08-21 原文 →
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LAB now ships a free Idea Feed: rule-shaped trading ideas, deliberately untested

A small release, not a launch. The LAB tab on gex.live has a new rightmost rail called IDEA FEED . It is a stream of short, rule-shaped trading ideas about SPX dealer positioning — "fade the first touch of the call wall after a gap up", that kind of thing — collected daily by a scanner from what people actually discuss, rewritten into something the Lab compiler can parse, and published untested . That last word is the point. Why untested is the feature Every feed of trading ideas on the internet comes with a verdict attached: "this works", "78% win rate", a screenshot of a good month. The feed here refuses to do that. Each card says exactly two things about its idea: compiles clean (our compiler turned the text into a runnable rule without complaint) and untested (nobody has run it against the archive yet). The honest test is yours to run. One click drops the idea into the Lab conveyor. The compiler has already done the translation, so the first message in your session is the rule itself, stamped ↳ from IDEA FEED · compiles, untested . Running the backtest costs one Lab credit; a failed job refunds itself. If your balance is zero the button does not go dead — it turns into 0 CREDITS · BUY → , remembers the idea you picked, and comes back to it after. What you will not find No source attribution on the cards. The idea is the unit, not the poster. No win rates, no "rated", no thumbs. The archive is 1,000+ finished SPX sessions; the Lab tests against all of it with an out-of-sample split and tells you what survived, which so far is: very little. That verdict is worth more than a badge on a card. No approval gate. The scanner's finds ship directly every day, so the feed stays fresh by itself. "NEW" is personal — it means new since you last opened the rail, not new for everyone. Why build a feed that mostly produces "no" Because the alternative is pretending. The whole site is built on measuring dealer positioning from the tape instead of assuming it from yesterday's ope

2026-08-21 原文 →
AI 资讯

The Lab: a backtester that is allowed to say "no"

gex.live has two halves. The terminal measures where SPX options dealers are positioned, every second, from the tape. The Lab is the half that asks the uncomfortable question: does any of that predict anything? What it is A browser-side conveyor with three stages and a credit meter. Compile. You describe a rule in plain text — "short the first touch of the put wall when net gamma is below the 20th percentile" — and the compiler turns it into a deterministic rule over the archive's fields: flip, walls, hold band, gamma percentile, DEX/VEX/vanna/charm per strike, time of day. Compiling is free. If the text is ambiguous the compiler says which part, instead of guessing. Backtest. The rule runs against the full session archive — 1,000+ finished SPX days, every one of them public at gex.live/sessions — with a fixed out-of-sample split. One credit per job; a job that fails refunds itself. Quant optimize. Optional. A LightGBM pass over the same feature store to see whether there is structure the hand-written rule missed, reported as out-of-sample AUC plus feature importance, not as a new "signal". The heavy part (DuckDB + LightGBM) runs in a scale-to-zero container that reads snapshots over HTTPS from the public archive. It depends on no machine and on no private data, which is the point: you are testing against the same files anyone can download. The honest-stats rule Every verdict comes with its baseline. "Your rule made 3% in-sample" means nothing next to "the unconditional drift over the same days was 2.8%". The report shows both, shows the out-of-sample half separately, and refuses to produce a headline number from the in-sample half. Most rules do not survive this. That includes our own: the site's own directional levels were tested three separate ways across the whole archive and none held out of sample — which is why the terminal sells measurement and not signals, and why the Lab exists at all. The free Idea Feed Next to the conveyor sits a rail of rule-shaped idea

2026-08-21 原文 →
AI 资讯

Part 1 — What Actually Happens When Code Runs

When we write: const result = add ( 10 , 20 ); it feels like the computer simply "runs the code." But the CPU doesn't understand JavaScript. There are several layers between the code we write and the hardware actually executing instructions. That's what I wanted to understand first. From JavaScript to the CPU In Node.js, JavaScript is handled by V8 , the JavaScript engine. A simplified view looks like this: JavaScript ↓ V8 ↓ Bytecode ↓ JIT compilation ↓ Machine instructions ↓ CPU V8 doesn't simply "interpret JavaScript" or "compile JavaScript" once and forget about it. It can start with bytecode and progressively compile frequently executed ("hot") code into more optimized machine code. Eventually, the CPU is executing instructions that operate at a much lower level than the JavaScript we originally wrote. What does the CPU actually do? At its core, a CPU repeatedly executes instructions. A simplified mental model is: Fetch → Decode → Execute → Repeat The CPU has several important pieces involved in this process. Registers are tiny, extremely fast storage locations inside the CPU. They're used to hold values the CPU is actively working with. The ALU (Arithmetic Logic Unit) performs many arithmetic and logical operations. The Program Counter (PC) keeps track of where the next instruction comes from. And the CPU runs according to a clock, measured in GHz. A 3 GHz CPU has roughly 3 billion clock cycles per second, but that does not mean it executes 3 billion instructions per second. Different instructions and architectures have different costs. Modern CPUs are far more sophisticated than this simplified model, using pipelining, multiple execution units, branch prediction, out-of-order execution, and more. But the basic model is enough to start reasoning about performance. The CPU doesn't get everything from RAM One of the most important things I learned here is that where data lives matters . A simplified hierarchy looks like: Registers ↓ L1 Cache ↓ L2 Cache ↓ L3 Cache

2026-08-20 原文 →
AI 资讯

Computer Fundamentals: No BS

I've been working with software for a few years now, and I've noticed something uncomfortable. I can build things. I can work with React, Node.js, databases, APIs, cloud services, and all the usual stuff that comes with being a software engineer. But if I stop and ask: "What is the computer actually doing underneath all of this?" My mental model gets surprisingly fuzzy. I know the concepts. I've used them. I've probably explained some of them before. But knowing how to use something and understanding what is actually happening underneath it are two very different things. And I want to fix that. Why I'm writing this This isn't a course, and I'm not writing this as an expert teaching computer science. These are essentially my notes while rebuilding my computer fundamentals from the ground up . I'm trying to connect the things I use every day as a software engineer with what is actually happening inside the machine. Instead of learning concepts because they're on a traditional CS syllabus, I'm starting with a question: What do I actually need to understand to reason about a production system? For me, that means being able to look at a system and understand what's happening underneath my code. Why is something slow? Where is the bottleneck? What happens when something fails? Why does adding more memory help in one situation but not another? What actually happens when two things execute concurrently? Why does a database query become slow? What happens to a simple HTTP request between two machines? I don't want to just know the answer. I want the mental model that lets me reason about the answer . The path I'm taking I'm roughly following the layers that a typical request passes through: CPU → Memory → OS → Network → Storage → Concurrency → Distributed Systems So the series will go through: 1. What Actually Happens When Code Runs Starting from the bottom: CPU mental model, memory hierarchy, and number representation . 2. Operating Systems Then moving up into processes, th

2026-08-20 原文 →